Yes, it would be a big change. But if Europe needs to bring out the Anti-Coercion Instrument against the US, an economic weapon it invented to be used against China, the world is in a very different place in belief of what could be safe.
If China signals that it is changing its attitude on its currency, that it wants to be the reserve currency and establish a consumer economy, it wouldn't take much for people to shift these days. Nobody needs to adopt the Renminbi 100% right away, they can transition to multiple currencies for a while as a hedge against the US, and the situation will evolve. Dedollarization won't happen in a month or a year, it will be a multi-year process once it kicks off. But once it kicks off, it will be because of such a loss of confidence in the US that it probably won't be possible to stop it.
Yes, it would be a big change. But if Europe needs to bring out the Anti-Coercion Instrument against the US, an economic weapon it invented to be used against China, the world is in a very different place in belief of what could be safe.
If China signals that it is changing its attitude on its currency, that it wants to be the reserve currency and establish a consumer economy, it wouldn't take much for people to shift these days. Nobody needs to adopt the Renminbi 100% right away, they can transition to multiple currencies for a while as a hedge against the US, and the situation will evolve. Dedollarization won't happen in a month or a year, it will be a multi-year process once it kicks off. But once it kicks off, it will be because of such a loss of confidence in the US that it probably won't be possible to stop it.