alt Hacker NewsFundamental analysis is great! But I have trouble answering concrete questions of probability with it.
How do you use fundamental analysis to assign a probability to Nvidia closing under $100 this year, and what probability do you assign to that outcome?
I'd love to hear your reasoning around specifics to get better at it.
Replies
esafak • yesterday at 7:47 PM
Don't you need a model for how people will react to the fundamentals? People set the price.
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I think the idea of fundamental analysis that you focus on return on equity and see if that valuation is appreciably more than the current price (as opposed to assigning a probability)