alt Hacker NewsEh, I don't think that is really a consistent, useful model. It's not that material interests are irrelevant, but ideological alignment even at the most Machiavellian level constrains what's possible, if not outright defining where lines are drawn. You can't ignore how politics happens within countries when looking at how they interact with each other.
Also, messaging matters. To make a crass analogy, if I punch you in the face and tell you it’s because I just felt like it, vs. because I thought you slept with my girlfriend, you’re going to respond completely differently (after the initial surprise).
In fact, everyone who bore witness to the punch would come away with different opinions depending on the reason I gave for punching you. And those opinions have knock-on effects (“We shouldn’t come to this part of town anymore, people just get punched out of nowhere…”)