That's only because your ISP won't have routed that packet to you if someone gave it to _them_. However, if someone was able to get to the ISP-side of the connection that you have with your ISP, and send a packet down the fiber/copper line from the ISP side towards your router, and that packet has a dst of your internal network (192.168.0.1 or whatever), your router will happily route that straight on to whatever internal network you have.
This means that if someone decided to be a bad actor and start tapping fiber lines on the poles in your neighborhood, NAT would do literally nothing to protect you from all the packets they start sending your way.
If somebody is wishing to tap fiber optics lines to the ISP or to hack the ISP just to get to your router, then you probably are not going to be saved by a "default deny" firewall anyway.