I disagree with this strongly. The intended use case of NAT or the existence of inbound connections being blocked by routers is irrelevant.
For NAT, of course it isn't meant for security, but it has a side-effect of creating a network boundary, and that has positive security implications.
If your router doesn't have a firewall blocking any connections, NAT still has security implications as it is deployed typically on consumer networks, which is a one-way port-address-translation for outbound traffic.
The important bit here is not NAT or firewalls, but layer 3 network segments!!!
An RFC1918 private addrerss space is not internet routable. Furthermore, routers shouldn't "default route" traffic from arbitrary connected networks by default. But "should" aside, the typical default consumer router behavior is that they don't NAT translate inbound traffic, they can't!
If a random internet IP wanted to connect to port 80 on a device at 192.168.1.200 in your home network, it doesn't know how to tell your router what IP to translate it's request to the router's public IP to. That is the essential positive security implication. In commercial grade routers, the same applies except even if the external IP knew to direct the router to the right internal IP, or if the route knew to direct the traffic to the right external IP for outbound connections, unless you configure a default route, or a more explicit route, it won't forward such traffic.
With IPv6, end devices in your network get a globally routed address, someone can try to connect to that same internal device as my earlier example and succeed with the same exact default behavior in place.
IPv6 is thus, by relative metrics, insecure by default. It does not mean it cannot be secured, but it is less secure than IPv4 in typical deployments where extra care isn't taken to secure it properly. If your answer to this is "well that's just because people who deploy networks are dumb" then save your self the effort or arguing that, it is irrelevant. That is how networks are deployed in the real world, period. People make mistakes in the real world. People don't know best practices in the real world. So out of the box, things need to consider real world hazards, and IPv6 does not do that.
You can support the adaption of IPv6 nonetheless and I would have no disagreement there.
The problem is, as I understand it, is this hypothetical network where there is a NAT but no firewall just does not exist.
>In commercial grade routers, the same applies except even if the external IP knew to direct the router to the right internal IP, or if the route knew to direct the traffic to the right external IP for outbound connections, unless you configure a default route, or a more explicit route, it won't forward such traffic.
This is typically handled by the firewall, not the NAT. You can easily come up with scenarios that without the firewall, the NAT could be trivially defeated, e.g. by port scanning.