I mean there is a second almost if not more critical requirement which is has a big enough and liquid enough debt market to function like US treasuries.

> Also I don't see that EU as a whole is on a downward trajectory

That's an extremely contrarian take that you can't justify with EU defense did good for once in it's life. Maybe we'll see something from the EU but remember the USA and EU GDP were basically identical 10 years ago now the US is 50% bigger.

Seriously in 2008 the EU had a bigger GDP and now is a fraction of the USA and member nations have done basically nothing to fix the core issues that left them behind.

> US on the other hand - who wants to invest in or trade with them when they treat the rest of the world (including close friends) as shit.

Sadly it doesn't really matter about a "want" it's a need at this point unless people are going to cut off their arm and collapse their own economies they don't really get a choice.