> According to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b66ZZ05wKC0 this might end very badly very soon

The paper they cite [1] estimates "the no-manoeuvre collision time" for various orbits. It has no alarming results.

That paper cites another paper [2], which raises the possibility of runaway conditions. It, in turn, runs a model developed in this paper [3].

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.09643

[2] https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3...

[3] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234449150_Critical_...