It's something of an open question whether MAGA will follow him or not. I would bet against it, for the same reason few of them followed Jeb after George. I would bet on some in-fighting between Don Jr, JD and some of the others, and a new MAGA champion will emerge (maybe not for a decade) who we aren't really paying too much attention to right now.

Vance has zero of the charisma that Trump has for his voters.

I can’t explain the charisma. I can’t even really describe it, but it’s real. Others have tried to replicate it with no luck.