alt Hacker NewsFrankly, this reads as a lot of words that amount to an excuse for using only LMArena, and the rationale is quite clear: it’s for an unrelated argument that isn’t going to ring true to people, especially an audience of programmers who just spent the last year watching the AI go from being able to make coherent file edits to multi hour work.
LMArena is, de facto, a sycophancy and Markdown usage detector.
Two others you can trust, off the top of my head, are LiveBench.ai and Artifical Analysis. Or even Humanity’s Last Exam results. (Though, frankly, I’m a bit suspicious of them. Can’t put my finger on why. Just was a rather rapid hill climb for a private benchmark over the last year.)
FWIW GPT 5.2 unofficial marketing includes the Erdos thing you say isn’t happening.
I've always found LiveBench a bit confusing to try to compare over time as the dataset isn't meant to be compared over time. It also currently claims GPT-5 Mini High from last summer is within ~15% of Claude 4.5 Opus Thinking High Effort in the average, but I'll wait with bated breath for the millions of amazing apps which couldn't be coded before to start showing up (or, more likely, be told in 6 months how these 2 benchmarks weren't the ones that should matter either). Artificial Analysis at least has the same at 20% from the top, so maybe that's the one we all agree to use for now since it implies faster growth.
> FWIW GPT 5.2 unofficial marketing includes the Erdos thing you say isn’t happening.
Certainly not, unless you're about to tell me I can pop into ChatGPT and pop out Erdos proofs regularly since #728 was massaged out with multiple prompts and external tooling a few weeks ago - which is what I was writing about. It was great, it was exciting, but it's exactly the slow growth I'm talking about.
I like using LLMs, I use them regularly, and I'm hoping they continue to get better for a long time... but this is in no way the GPT 3 -> 3.5 -> 4 era of mind boggling growth of frontier models anymore. At best, people are finding out how to attach various tooling to the models to eek more out as the models themselves very slowly improve.