We have hard evidence of it becoming easier every damn day. AI is taking these jobs. The models aren't perfect, but the speed tradeoff is so massive that you really can't say it's "hard" to build anything anymore. Nobody is lying.
If you think of building software as just writing the code then sure AI makes things a lot easier. But if software engineering also includes security, setting up and maintaining infrastructure, choosing the right tradeoffs, understanding how to deal with evolving requirements without ballooning code complexity, etc., then AI struggles with that at the moment.
> but the speed tradeoff
If you only care about a single metric you can convince yourself to make all kinds of bad decisions.
> Nobody is lying.
Nobody is being honest either. That happens all the time.
What is the hard evidence?
Edit: What I mean by this is there may be some circumstantial evidence (less hiring for juniors, more AI companies getting VC funding). We currently have no _hard_ evidence that programming has had a substantial speed increase/deskilling from LLMs yet. Any actual __science__ on this has yet to show this. But please, if you have _hard_ evidence on this topic I would love to see it.