I'm not sure.

Think of the Game hits from the 90's. A room full of people made games which shaped a generation. Maybe it was orders of magnitude harder then, but today, it's multiple orders of magnitude more people required to make them.

Same is true for websites. Sure, the websites were dingy with poor UX and oodles of bugs... but the size of the team required to make them was absolutely tiny compared to today.

Things are simultaneously the best they've ever been, and the worst they've ever been, it's a weird situation to be in for sure.

But truthfully; orders of magnitude more powerful hardware was the real unlock.

Why is slack and discord popular? Because it's possible to use multiple gigabytes of ram for a chat client.

25 years ago? Multiple gigabytes of ram put your machine firmly in the "I have unlimited money and am probably a server doing millions of things" class.

Modern Java is vastly more complicated than early Java. So I'm not sure I follow your reasoning. Programming nowadays is absurdly complicated. I have 20 years of experience and I can't imagine how new developer could learn it all.

I don't really know if AI makes programming easier or harder. At one side, you can explore any topic with AI. This is super powerful ability when it comes to learning. At another side, the temptation to offload your work to AI is big and if you do that, you'll learn nothing. So it comes down to a person type, I guess. Some people will use AI to learn and some people will use AI to avoid learning, both behaviours are empowered.

I have simple and useless answer how to solve that. Throw it all out. Start from the scratch. Start with simple CPU. Start with simple OS. Start with simple protocols. Do not write frameworks. Make the number of layers between your code and hardware as small as possible. So it's actually possible to understand it all. Right now the number of abstraction layers is too big. Of course nobody's going to do that, people will put more abstraction layers and it'll work, it always works. But that sucks. Software stack was much simpler 20-30 years ago. We didn't even had source control, I was the young developer who introduced subversion into our company, but we still delivered useful software.

Short answer: No, things have not gotten easier. The toolchain is insanely huge. A computer science graduate is woefully underprepared for the tool tsnuami that will completely swamp their careers. Many of these tools are worse than no tool at all.

Causes: Bubble economics, perverse incentives, lack of objectivity, and more.

The good news is that huge competitive advantages are available to those who refuse to accept norms without careful evaluation.

Having learned programming in the 80s (as a teen), I would say it was much easier back then. Programmers have made things vastly more complicated these days.

> programming is easier than ever

Or does it just seem that way because you've had a whole lifetime to digest it one little bit at a time so that it all seems intuitive now? If "easy to understand and get started with" were the bar for programming capability, we'd have stopped with COBOL.

I think as many other people who replied to you have said, it's a mixed bag. It's better in some sense, with abstractions and frameworks that sand down sharp edges, and libraries that can do everything. But it's also crushingly more complex. Back in the day you had to know and care about memory allocation and ASM, but all the knowledge you needed was in a manual or two that you owned and could actually know the contents of.

> Compare modern languages like Go & Rust to C & C++, simply for their ease-of-compilation and execution.

Except that at least for game development, C and C++ are still the go-to tools?

Maybe the outcome they had in mind was "it helps, but nowhere near 10x"?

Also, I'm not sure anyone was making 10x claims about the tools you cite.

I think it is about as hard as it ever was. The tricky part is learning to think through problems in a certain way, when you have that it doesn't matter much whether you're reading hexdumps and slinging low-level code on a 68k chip or clicking about in Godot and watching videos about clicking.

Crapping out code that does the thing was never the hard part, the hard part is reading the crap someone did and changing it. There are tradeoffs here, perhaps you might invest in modeling up front and use more or less formal methods, or you're just great at executing code over and over very fast with small adjustments and interpreting the result. Either way you'll eventually produce something robust that someone else can change reasonably fast when needed.

The additions to Java and C# are a lot about functional programming concepts, and we've had those since forever way back in the sixties. Map/reduce/filter are old concepts, and every loop is just recursion with some degree of veiling, it's not a big thing whether you piece it together in assembly or Scheme, typing it out isn't where you'll spend most of your time. That'll be reading it once it's no longer yesterday that you wrote it.

If I were to invent a 10x-meganinja-dev-superpower-tool it would be focused on static and execution analysis, with strong extendability in a simple DSL or programming language, and decent visualisation API:s. It would not be 'type here to spin the wheels and see what code drops out', that part is solved many times over already, in Wordpress, JAXB oriented CRM and so on. The ability to confidently implement change in a large, complex system is enabled by deterministic immediate analysis and visualisation.

Then there are the soft skills. While you're doing it you need to keep bosses and "stakeholders" happy and make sure they do not start worrying about the things you do. So you need to communicate reliably and clearly, in a language they understand, which is commonly pictures with simple words they use a lot every day and little arrows that bring the message together. Whether you use this or that mainstream programming language will not matter at all in this.

You missed the word "anyone". Of course tools for programmers have seen huge improvements. The "promise" referred to here is that you don't need to learn programming skills to be an effective programmer.