You can make a good guess, though - OpenAI had a significant lead, its moat was being a generation or 2 ahead of the competition, and as of the end of 2025, OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic are pretty much neck and neck. Grok and Gemini are likely to be the top 2 within the next couple months, and the Chinese open models are hot on their heels.

OpenAI is going to be competing for third or fourth place with Anthropic unless one of them pulls off a big capabilities or efficiency leap while remaining believably as good as the other top models. Google and xAI have advantages that the others don't, and are capitalizing on them like crazy. It remains to be seen whether xAI can compete with the Google hardware advantage, but they have economies of scale, differences in mission, and Elon's billions on their side, so it's turning out to be a very interesting race.

Sama could also finagle a funding rabbit or strategic partnership out of his hat and also have the next top tier model, amazing everyone again and keeping a plausible "best in class" lead for a while; OpenAI would have to be down for at least a year before I counted it out completely. It's not looking very pretty for them right now, though.