Elon put everything he had into spacex and tesla. Against all odds, both worked out. He's now betting tesla on optimus. People are willing to believe him given his extremely successful track record of beating the odds. Is it guaranteed? No. If it was guaranteed it wouldnt be an investment. You take on risk for the chance at a reward. Calling it hopium is ridiculous--if there's anyone on the planet that has a track record of pulling off the near impossible its Elon.