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pc86yesterday at 10:32 PM3 repliesview on HN

If you truly believe this, slowly divest everything into cash, wait for the crash, then buy back in. Even buying in slowly over the course of a crash, on the way down, will save you a ton of money if you're out before it hits.

But you're more likely to just cash out early, lose a bunch of gains, then buy back in later at higher prices.

If you can time the crash you can make a shitload of money. But you can't, so you'll come out better if you just keep buying in every paycheck and ride it out just like you have been.


Replies

RyanODyesterday at 10:46 PM

Yes to this. Take no alternative actions. Just keep investing and don't watch the market for a year or two.

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nick__myesterday at 10:51 PM

Doing nothing different is the kind of plan I can easily execute !

wing-_-nutstoday at 12:14 AM

It doesn't have to be 'ride it till it dies' or 'sell everything'. The AI bubble is almost exclusively contained to the US stock market and a few east Asian manufacturers.

You're right that selling everything and 'going to cash' would be a mistake, but diversifying away from US large cap growth absolutely wouldn't. I'm 60/40 stocks/bonds. My stocks and bonds are 50/50 us/intl. ~ 10% of my us portfolio is small cap value.

What's funny to me is that nobody learns from the past. This is far from the first tech bubble we've had even before the .com crash (canals, railroads, radio...). The answer, every time was diversification.

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