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GMoromisatotoday at 1:09 AM1 replyview on HN

I'm amazed at this kind of thinking. I get it, obviously, and it's not uncommon, but still.

Elon Musk has already revolutionized three industries:

1. EVs: Before Tesla, no one thought electric cars could be a mass-market product. And even today, the Model 3 and Model Y are at the top of almost all sales lists.

2. Orbital Launch: No one expected Space X to succeed. What does a software guy know about real engineering? But today, re-usable rockets are the way of the future, and Space X is at least 5 to 10 years ahead of any other company.

3. Satellite Communications: Every single major military power is trying to deploy their own version of Starlink. Before Starlink, 50 satellites was considered a big constellation. Starlink has 8,000 satellites and they are literally launching hundreds every month.

I know it's impossible to prove a counter-factual, but I'm convinced that none of these three would have happened without Elon. No other Western car company has (even now) produced a profitable EV. No other space company has prices as low as Space X. No one even has the capability to build a Starlink competitor (not yet at least). Without Elon pushing these projects, they simply would not have happened or would have happened decades later (after China or someone else beat us to it).

Even his not-yet-successful projects are far beyond most other companies:

Boring Company has actually built tunnels and passengers are actually riding it. No one else is even trying.

Neuralink has actually helped patients.

Tesla FSD actually does work (I use it all the time), and even if Waymo is ahead, Tesla is easily in second place.

I 100% get the hatred for Elon Musk. His political positions are absolutely worth criticizing and I cringe most of the time he tweets. But to deny his business and engineering ability is just motivated reasoning.

Such illusions are ultimately self-defeating. The more opposed one is to Elon Musk (in business or politics) the more important it is to see his capabilities clearly.


Replies

rmccuetoday at 3:09 AM

> Boring Company has actually built tunnels and passengers are actually riding it. No one else is even trying.

Boring Company bought an existing tunnel boring machine (TBM), and used it to dig a car tunnel. Their only “innovation” in terms of any cost savings is to dig smaller tunnels - which we already knew could be done (tunnel cost grows with diameter), and which we don’t do for good reasons (capacity, emergency egress).

The branding and marketing exercise was excellent though.