alt Hacker NewsExcept for Moore's law, everyone knew decades ahead of what the limits of Dennard scaling are (shrinking geometry through smaller optical feature sizes), and roughly when we would get to the limit.
Since then, all improvements came at a tradeoff, and there was a definite flattening of progress.
Replies
kijiki • today at 2:17 AM
Everyone?
Intel, at the time the unquestioned world leader in semiconductor fabrication was so unable to accurately predict the end of Dennard scaling that they rolled out the Pentium 4. "10Ghz by 2010!" was something they predicted publicly in earnest!
It, uhhh, didn't quite work out that way.
> Since then, all improvements came at a tradeoff, and there was a definite flattening of progress.
Idk, that sounds remarkably similar to these AI models to me.