This is what I don't really understand. It's a bit difficult to take "wait x months" at face value because I've been hearing it for so long. Wait x months for what? Why hasn't it happened yet?

Things seem to be getting better from December 2022 (chatgpt launch), sure, but is there a ceiling we don't see?

Just a couple more trillion dollars, we are so close!

Things have progressed much faster than even the most optimistic predictions, so every "wait 6 months" has come true. Just look at how the discourse has changed on HN. No-one is using the arguments from 6 months ago and any argument today will probably be equally moot in 6 months.

Humans are notoriously bad at predicting the future. We can't even reliably predict the weather a week from now.

But the sentiment has changed significantly over the last 6 months. I think this is the biggest step change in sentiment since ChatGPT 3.5. Someone who said "wait 6 months" 6 months ago would have been "right".