alt Hacker News > it's still just six months away
I think it is one thing for the average person to buy into the promises but I've yet to understand why that happens here. Or why that happens within our community of programmers. It is one thing for non-experts to fall for obtuse speculative claims, but it is another for experts. I'm excited for autonomous vehicles, but in 2016 is was laughable to think they're around the corner and only 10 years later does such a feat seem to start looking like it's actually a few years away.
Why do we only evaluate people/claims on their hits and not their misses? It just encourages people to say anything and everything, because eventually one will be right. It's 6 months away because eventually it will actually be 6 months away. But is it 6 months away because it is actually 6 months away or because we want it to be? I thought the vibe coder's motto is "I just care that it works." Honestly, I think that's the problem. Everyone care's about if it works or not and that's the primary concern of all sides of the conversation here. So is it 6 months away because it is 6 months away or is it 6 months away because you've convinced yourself it is 6 months away. You got good reasons for believing that, you got the evidence, but evidence for a claim is meaningless without comparing to evidence that counters the claim.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...