> If you look at the rapid acceleration of progress

I don’t understand this perspective. There are numerous examples of technical progress that then stalls out. Just look at batteries for example. Or ones where advancements are too expensive for widespread use (e.g. why no one flies Concorde any more)

Why is previous progress a guaranteed indicator of future progress?

If you think AGI is at hand why are you trying to sway a bunch of internet randos who don’t get it? :) Use those god-like powers to make the life you want while it’s still under the radar.

>If you look at the rapid acceleration of progress and conclude this way

There's no "rapid acceleration of progress". If anything there's a decline, and even an economic decline.

Take away the financial bubbles based on deregulation and huge explosion of debt, and the last 40 years of "economic progress" are just a mirage filling a huge bubble with air in actual advancement terms - unlike the previous millenia.

> rapid acceleration

Who was it who stated that every exponential was just a sigmoid in disguise?

> most humans are really stupid.

Statistically, don't we all sort of fit somewhere along a bell curve?

Yes, and that's why surpassing it doesn't lead to a singularity except over an infinite timeframe. This whole thing was stupid in the first place.

What rapid acceleration?

I look at the trajectory of LLMs, and the shape I see is one of diminishing returns.

The improvements in the first few generations came fast, and they were impressive. Then subsequent generations took longer, improved less over the previous generation, and required more and more (and more and more) resources to achieve.

I'm not interested in one guy's take that LLMs are AGI, regardless of his computer science bonafides. I can look at what they do myself, and see that they aren't, by most very reasonable definitions of AGI.

If you really believe that the singularity is happening now...well, then, shouldn't it take a very short time for the effects of that to be painfully obvious? Like, massive improvements in all kinds of technology coming in a matter of months? Come back in a few months and tell me what amazing new technologies this supposed AGI has created...or maybe the one in denial isn't me.