> his use cases for LLMs at the time were summarizing emails in his email client

Sounds just like my manager. Though he never has made a proclamation that this meant developers should be 10x as productive or anything along those lines. On the contrary, when I made a joke about LLMs being able to replace managers before they get anywhere near replacing developers, he nearly hyperventilated. Not because he didn't believe me, but because he did, and already been thinking that exact thought.

My conclusion so far is that if we get LLMs capable of replacing developers, then by extension we will have replaced a lot of other people first. And when people make jokes like "should have gone into a trade, can't replace that with AI" I think they should be a little more introspective; all the people who aspired to be developers but got kicked out by LLMs will be perfectly able to pivot to trades, and the barrier to entry is low. AI is going to be disruptive across the board.