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woeiruatoday at 4:40 AM2 repliesview on HN

The best part about this whole debate is that we don't have to wait years and years for one side to be proven definitively right. We will know beyond a shadow of a doubt which side is right by this time next year. If agentic coding has not progressed any further by then, we will know. On the other hand, if coding agents are 4x better than they are today, then there will be a deluge of software online, the number of software engineers that are unemployed will have skyrocketed up and HN will be swamped by perma-doomers.


Replies

awesome_dudetoday at 4:55 AM

Wait - why are we waiting (another) year?

ChatGPT has been out for 3 years (Nov 2022)

Claude almost 3 years (March 2023)

Gemini 1 and a bit years (2024)

There hasn't been an avalanche of new software online - if anything things have slowed

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MrVandemartoday at 4:44 AM

Maybe we will know, but meanwhile thousands of developers are a long down way the rabbit-hole signposted "the psychology of prior investment".