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anonnontoday at 8:40 AM0 repliesview on HN

The "Anti" stance is only tenable now if you believe LLMs are going to hit a major roadblock in the next few months around which Big AI won't be able to navigate. Something akin to the various "ghosts in the machine" that started bedeviling EEs after 2000 when transistors got sufficiently small, including gate leakage and sub-threshold current, such that Dennard Scaling came to an abrupt end and clock speeds stalled.

I personally hope that that happens, but I doubt it will. Note also that processors still continued to improve even without Dennard Scaling due to denser, better optimized onboard caches, better branch prediction, and more parallelism (including at the instruction level), and the broader trend towards SoCs and away from PCB-based systems, among other things. So at least by analogy, it's not impossible that even with that conjectured roadblock, Big AI could still find room for improvement, just at a much slower rate.

But current LLMs are thoroughly compelling, and even just continued incremental improvements will prove massively disruptive to society.