My dad was a stockbroker in the 1970s and he had a great line:
“When computers first came out we were told:
‘Computers will be so productive and save you so much time you won’t know what to do with all of your free time!’
Unsurprisingly, that didn’t happen.”
Aka Jevon’s Paradox in practice
This would be true without competition.
What really happens is everybody adopts the same strategy and raises the work floor while demanding more.
Until we get rid of unlimited greed in humans we shouldn't expect a change.
The Mythical Man Month was published in 75, with a deep technical insiders perspective.
The kinds of productivity scaling they had been seeing to that point could be reasonably extrapolated to all kinds of industrial re-alignment.
Then we ran out of silver bullets.
[Still waiting to see what percentage of LLM hype is driven by people not having read The Mythical Man Month.]