> far enough from retirement that a layoff now would meaningfully change that timeline or QOL

yeah this is where i am. Turning 50 in April, I have two boys about to hit college and the bills associated with that and i have 15 years before i'm forced to retire. I have to up the salary to pay/help for college and i have to keep the 401k maxed + catchups maxed over the next 15 years to pull off retirement. The change from AI is scary, it may be good for me or it may be devastating. Staring down that barrel and making career decisions with no room for error (no time to rebuild) is pretty harrowing.