this is the quietest crisis in the us right now. our entire insurance and social safety net system (especially ltc and social security) is mathematically dependent on a forever growth pyramid.

once that population curve flattens or flips, the risk pooling math just breaks. you can’t underwrite a 30-year health or life liability for a cohort when the generation behind them is 20% smaller. we’re looking at a fundamental failure of the actuarial models we've used since the 50s.