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SketchySeaBeastyesterday at 7:25 PM2 repliesview on HN

Is Opsec 101 to increase the estimate by two orders of magnitude? "We think this operation will take about 10 weeks, so we're estimating 10 years."


Replies

schiffernyesterday at 7:59 PM

The answer is "long enough to avoid giving away operational details," not some robotically applied constant multiplier like 10x.

We also don't know whether they expected this to take 1 day or more. Just because it worked out quickly doesn't mean that's the "worst case" operational timeline.

lazyasciiartyesterday at 10:48 PM

Isn’t that how estimating timelines should work?