I think it's coupled differential equations where each growth factor amplifies the others, I posted about it in 2024 - https://b.h4x.zip/ce/ - sent it around a bit but everyone thought I was nuts, look at that post from 2025 and think about what was happening IRL under the graphs line, then go look at where METR is today. I'm not trying to brag, I don't work for anthropic, but I do think I'm probably right.

I only take it partially seriously. I view it as a serious presentation that is misinformed. What I find unique is that people have become so interested in "the exponential" it's almost become like an axiom, or even a near religious belief in AI. It is a subtle admission that while current AI capabilities are impressive, it requires additional years of exponential growth for AI to reach the fantastic claims some people are making.

All glory to the exponential!