alt Hacker NewsNobody out of people remotely worth listening to. There's always people deeply wrong about things but over 70 years at this point is a pretty insane position unless you have a great reason like expecting Taiwan to get bombed tomorrow and slow down progress.
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I think the only people that don't think we're going to see AGI within the next 70 years are people that believe consciousness involves "magic". That is, some sort of mystical or quantum component that is, by definition, out of our reach.
The rest of us believe that the human brain is pretty much just a meat computer that differs from lower life forms mostly quantitatively. If that's the case, then there really isn't much reason to believe we can't do exactly what nature did and just keep scaling shit up until it's smart.
Probabilities have increased, but it's still not a certainty. It may turn out that stumbling across LLMs as a mimicry of human intelligence was a fluke and the confluence of remaining discoveries and advancements required to produce real AGI won't fall into place for many, many years to come, especially if some major event (catastrophic world war, systematic environmental collapse, etc) occurs and brings the engine of technological progress to a crawl for 3-5 decades.