This is written with the idea that the exponential part keeps going forever.

It never does. The progress curve always looks sigmoidal.

- The beginning looks like a hockey stick, and people get excited. The assumption is that the growth party will never stop.

- You start to hit something that inherently limits the exponential growth and growth starts to be linear. It still kinda looks exponential and the people that want the party to keep growing will keep the hype up.

- Eventually you saturate something and the curve turns over. At this point it’s obvious to all but the most dedicated party-goers.

I don’t know where we are on the LLM curve, but I would guess we’re in the linear part. Which might keep going for a while. Or maybe it turns over this year. No one knows. But the party won’t go on forever; it never does.

I think Cal Newport’s piece [0] is far more realistic:

> But for now, I want to emphasize a broader point: I’m hoping 2026 will be the year we stop caring about what people believe AI might do, and instead start reacting to its real, present capabilities.

[0] Discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46505735