alt Hacker NewsHaven't watched the video, but the end of exponential growth isn't the end of growth. It means the percentage growth per year decreases. The Internet also went through an exponential growth phase at the beginning.
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trhway • today at 12:04 AM
>the end of exponential growth
we're on the verge of getting to Moon and Mars in more than rare tourist numbers and with notable payloads. Add to that advancements in robotics, which will change things here on Earth as well as in space. The growth is only starting.
>The Internet also went through an exponential growth phase at the beginning.
If we consider general Internet as all the devices connected i think the exponential growth is still on as for example ARM CPUs shipments:
2002: Passed 1 billion cumulative chips shipped.
2011: Surpassed 1 billion units shipped in a single year.
2015: Running at ~12 billion units per year.
2020 (Q4): Record 6.7 billion chips shipped in one quarter (842 chips per second).
2020: Total cumulative shipments crossed 150 billion.
2024 (FY): Nearly 29 billion ARM chips shipped in 12 months.
2025: Total cumulative shipments exceeded 250 billion.➕ show 2 replies
You're describing a standard S-curve (logistic growth), which is definitely what happens to parameter counts or user adoption (like The Internet). But Amodei is applying this to scientific discovery itself. He’s effectively saying the "S-curve of Science" flatlines because we figure out everything that matters (curing aging, mental health, etc.). My whole point was that science doesn't have a top to the S-curve - it’s an infinite ladder (as per Deutsch).