logoalt Hacker News

bwfan123yesterday at 4:33 PM0 repliesview on HN

> This is the same dynamic that kept IBM dominant for decades

IBM still sells mainframes but is no longer a growth darling.

> Markets are right to reassess multiples. But reassessing multiples is very different from pricing in extinction

What you are missing is that the SaaS companies were extremely overpriced. For instance, crm after all the carnage is still priced at 25 times earnings which is historically high for anything that is not a growth company. The perception was that these companies would print money year after year selling software trinkets on their platforms and as such were placed in the growth category. Now, it is plainly obvious that these software trinkets can be produced easily by anyone using AI. Their pricing-power has dramatically declined. Hence the re-rating. None of this contradicts the thesis in your ai-assisted article that these businesses have moats just like IBM and its mainframes. These businesses are now in a vicious reflexive narrative loop where the narrative will impact the real-world which will further fuel the narrative.