alt Hacker NewsI'll add that the GPU, CPU, storage, and RAM industries crashed in 2022 after a Covid-induced boom.[0]
Everything was cheap. Samsung sold SSDs at a loss that year.
TSMC and other suppliers did not invest as much in cap ex in 2022 and 2023 because of the crash.
Parts of the shortage today can be blamed by those years. Of course ChatGPT also launched in late 2022 and the rest is history.
[0]www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20221123-11467.html
I bet the same thing happens when the AI bubble pops.
"but this time is different, it's not a bubble, there's real value there"
Economists use the term “bubble” to describe an asset price that has risen above the level justified by economic fundamentals, as measured by the discounted stream of expected future cash flows that will accrue to the owner of the asset.
I think there's little argument that is happening, the question is more about to what extent is it a bubble.
The entire global software industry is worth less than $1 trillion dollars. Or in other words smaller than the current valuation of just OpenAI + Anthropic.
Planned capital investment this year by the Magnificent 7 alone is $600B. More than 2/3 of the total global software industry. In one year. Good luck buying any computer hardware this year, there will be a shortage of everything, including electricity.
It's a bubble. But when does the music stop?