Current Opus 4.6 would be a huge achievement that would keep me satisfied for a very long time. However, I'm not quite as optimistic from what I've seen. The Quants that can run on a 24 GB Macbook are pretty "dumb." They're like anti-Thinking models; making very obvious mistakes and confusing themselves.

One big factor for local LLMs is that large context windows will seemingly always require large memory footprints. Without a large context window, you'll never get that Opus 4.6-like feel.