alt Hacker NewsIt baffles me that Polymarket is legal.
Even if there wasn't any kind of insider betting going on, it just seems so disgusting to turn literally everything into a casino.
There's a bet going on right now about Jesus coming back before 2027 [1], and a part of me wants to do it because I'm pretty confident Jesus isn't coming back by the end of the year (or any year), but it seems kind of wrong to try and extract money out of people who are gambling away their money.
[1] https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...
Replies
Polymarket's legality has not yet been tested in many places, although I don't personally object to it being legal, there's a chance it might not be.
Also, I'd advise against betting on the Jesus market. You can't actually read the price as a probability here due to time value of money, opportunity cost, etc. So you'd lose money (or at best, gain nothing) by betting against it. It's priced correctly.
The returns on [1] seem to be worse than CDs, and with no government insurance, so it's not worth it at the current payout. But if a religious event spikes the odds, it'll be worth taking the other side of this bet.