alt Hacker NewsEquating being "consistently right" with having a sufficiently large stash of capital is ludicrous.
"right" people will wisely take most their winnings out of a high-variance market. "wrong" people with deep pockets (or lots of wrong people with shallow pockets) will continue to distort the market.
Replies
SauntSolaire • today at 4:20 AM
Well, the more often you're right, the more capital you will be able to accrue to bet with next time.
> will continue to distort the market.
they can only do so as long as they have enough capital to lose. Because every time they try to move the betting markets against the truth, they will simply lose that money when the event happens (and turns out they were wrong).
So any distortion will merely be temporary. Unless they have access to unlimited capital of course - which is not true yet for anyone (but the US gov't).