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skybriantoday at 5:00 AM1 replyview on HN

Sure, but I meant it in the sense that someone needs to lose money or there's no point in smarter or more well-informed people playing. Their profits have to come from somewhere.

These could be (a) people who aren't as smart as they think they are (b) people who subsidize the market in order to get good predictions (c) people who are hedging (essentially, buying insurance). Perhaps other possibilities.


Replies

chiitoday at 5:47 AM

> the sense that someone needs to lose money

yep, and that's fine because they did so voluntarily.

If there were no stakes on the line, the information in the odds will also not have any real meaning.