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vessenestoday at 5:38 AM1 replyview on HN

For the thousandth time - they. make. a. profit. Inference margin is over 60%, today.

They are spending that money training ever-larger models, so they are cashflow negative, but under almost any sane GAAP treatment that does not allow one to write down all R&D upfront (capital costs of model training), they are profitable.

Should this matter to you? Only if you're making financial decisions that assume that somehow one day the "jig will be up" - i.e. please don't short these stocks when they float, or at least do so very judiciously.


Replies

scuff3dtoday at 7:16 AM

It always makes me laugh when people say this, because its so utterly pointless. That percentage assumes literally no other costs exist besides the direct inference cost.

Even if they quit trying to make better models today, there are a mountain of recurring costs that will never go away. Retraining the models with new data, replacing/upgrading old hardware, enormous infrastructure costs related to maintaining the actual platforms, data collection costs, payroll...

I'm not aware of a single player in the LLM space actually turning a profit, even if they're only providing inference.