To go vertical they’d need to illustrate the value-add, a problem that the vertical competitors already have. Why use Claude for Accountants at $300/month when regular Claude will do the same thing for much less? The stock answer is that Claude for Accountants keeps your data more secure and doesn’t train on it. But a) I think the enterprise consumer is much less likely to trust a model creator not to stick its hand in the cookie jar than a middleman who needs the trust to survive, and b) the vertical competitors typically don’t use the absolute most up-to-date models in their products anyway, so why not just go open-source and run everything in-house? 6 months is a long time in tech, but it’s the blink of an eye in most white-collar professions.
The point is that in this hypothetical you can get public access to Claude Opus 6, but they internally use Claude Opus 7 (Accounting Finetune) which is both cheaper to operate and higher IQ.
So they (or their wholly owned subsidiary) can sell accounting services cheaper than anyone on the outside.
Regarding the diffusion/distillation time, I assume it gets harder to distill in the world where frontier labs don’t give API access to their newest models.
Once the majority of work at a company can be done by AI, Anthropic has an alternative revenue stream to selling AIs to that company--directly competing with that company with a completely integrated AI system. There's of course many barriers to entry/various advantages of incumbents--but it's possible to see a world in which the company selling the AI has a huge advantage too.