If capabilities stop increasing for some reason, then yeah, Anthropic is screwed.

If METR task times double twice into the multi-day range in 12 months, then it’s plausible to me that Anthropic can charge $1k/mo or more by automating large chunks of the SWE role. (They have 10x’d their revenue every year, perhaps “value of enterprise contracts” is a better way of intuiting their growth rather than “$/seat” since each seat gets way more productive in this world-branch.)