Amodei is probablyright that current models aren't reliable enough for high-stakes decisions, but the more useful question is what the failure mode looks like in practice.
We're in an era that presents some novel problems.
I've read a few people this week discuss the consideration that Anthropic's behavior itself will likely impact Claude's training.
The concern there is that if Claude ingests news articles that show Anthropic behaving in a manner that clashes significantly with the values they want to instill in Claude, it could make training less effective.
It's all very weird.
If angering Trump weren't such high stakes, Anthropic could end this by releasing a single 30 second commercial.
Informing the public of this dispute would highlight Anthropic's mission (ie: responsible AI), which is a market differentiator.
The Pentagon would crawl back, anyways, since Claude is the most effective model for programming tasks.
For me, Anthropics’ actions so far were the reason to lobby company internal for Claude and against Codex. I was successful, that’s going to be a few subscriptions.