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tototrainstoday at 3:50 AM1 replyview on HN

I regularly check geopolitical markets to see if a breaking news story is substantial or not, and find it useful. It can help distinguish between propaganda and intelligence there.

It does seem like there could be a distinction between markets which require genuinely knowledge and analysis (geopolitics), versus pure gambling (sports, crypto up/down 5 minutes, etc), but I'm not sure who's going to bother making it.


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William_BBtoday at 8:40 AM

(Geopolitical) prediction markets almost always tend to overreact. This is expected from retail, so I'm not sure about the signal.

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