alt Hacker NewsBet on German Train Delays
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> In January 2026, Germany's federal court ruled that purchasing a Deutsche Bahn ticket constitutes a form of gambling (Glücksspiel), citing that “the probability of arriving on time is statistically comparable to a coin flip.”
> Rather than contest the ruling, DBSM embraced it. If riding our trains is gambling, then passengers deserve the right to hedge.
> BahnBet is our answer: a platform where you can bet against your own train, turning delays into suffering, and suffering into profit. Every minute of punctuality you lose, you can win back in deliciously valuable caßh.
for the people who wouldn't have inadvertently clicked on the website: it's not real money, it's a campaign to nudge the German provider to care about their infamous delays
Countdown to someone pulling the emergency brake because they have a lot of money at stake
Years ago, we build systems to predict delays on the German rail network. Paper here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X1...
The complexity of operations is astounding and the organisational challenges (e.g. railway deregulation push) make it even harder.
The proliferation of online gambling is IMO one of the bigger under-reported trends in modern society, and has a real potential for massive externalities throughout society.
When I was young (70s-80s), we were all amazed by Deutsche Bahn's punctuality and quality of service (second only to the Chemins de fer fédéraux suisses). Now, French and Italian trains are a lot more reliable, which is rather strange.
The Swiss Federal Railways asked German trains to wait at the border and has even ban many German trains to enter Switzerland over excessive delays to prevent their train schedule from being affected.
The site is hilarious by the way. I hope it will have an effect on DB, even though I doubt it.
Yeah, unfortunely it isn't that hard to win a bit, the situation has become relatively bad with delays on average of 30m, and even need to switch trains, better have a few alternative routes at hand, as plan on how to continue the trip when a connection is lost.
Say you have to pick a flight and you take the train to the airport. You can bet your train will be delayed, so if it ever happens at least you'll get a payout.
An insurance of sorts, so to speak.
I'd love to see a Japanese version of this. "Bet which of one of JR Chūō Line, JR Saikyō Line, and Tokyo Metro Tōzai Line will NOT get a delay certificate printed today".
The JetLag The Game guys would love this, because they have been Deutsche Bahn'd quite a few times :D
German trains are absolute chaos. Tickets are sent via PDF for trains running 3 hours late. I was in Frankfurt last year getting to Cologne and back a few times.
Coming from someone who has to commute via South Western railway into London everyday.
Sad state of affairs for Germany.
There people who bet way too early, and sometimes even before departure time. Like hundreds of euros. What does that mean? Mistyping? Cancellation?
Perfect for hedging the emotional damage on my daily commute in monetary units.
if you want to look up historic delay data (to make better guesses) you can use zugspaet: https://zugspaet.de/
Site is down, archive link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20260303171349/https://bahn.bet/
this is the country we romanticise for decades...and still many people do.
DBSM :D
If a responsible person is reading: The confirmation link of the email-verification doesn't work (at least for me)
> No real money is exchanged on this platform. All caßh is fictional, virtual, and entirely made up, much like Deutsche Bahn's timetable.
Sick burn hahaha
I have loved my journeys through Germany in recent years; locals are more than willing to speak English to you and are happy to direct you around.
This does hit home though: I did miss an international flight due to the S-Bahn out of Munich. Eventually they were like "this train is so delayed, we're going to make everyone get off and catch the next one". ::shrugs::
...and the Munich airport is just painful in general (the flight status boards shorten the flight numbers with ellipsis for instance).
Any ICE passing Frankfurt is a guaranteed 30 minute delay. Too easy to win.
People used to bet on ships sinking and sailors drowning. Till they learned better.
Edit: This was common until Parliament passed the Marine Insurance Act of 1745.
Before that, speculators could take out "wagering policies" on vessels they had no connection to. This created "coffin ships" - unseaworthy vessels sent to sea because the insurance payout for a wreck was worth more than the ship itself. The law introduced "insurable interest," meaning you cannot bet on a disaster unless you stand to lose something if it happens. This removed the incentive for sabotage and murder for profit.
Modern prediction markets are heading toward the same problem. Betting on train delays or bridge collapses without having any stake gives bad actors a reason to cause it. If the cost of sabotage is lower than the payout, the market effectively pays for the disaster to happen.
Whoever downvoted this wants you to ignore centuries of legal precedent designed to prevent exactly this kind of blood money. Those who ignore the lessons of the past learn wisdom in blood... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffin_ship_(insurance)#:~:tex... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Insurance_Act_1745#:~:t...
Where can I bet when this will be taken down?
(Asking since polymarket is forbidden in DE)
everything in this world will be turned into gambling. this stuff is a cancer on society
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Oh man, det er virkelig rigtigt sjovt!!! :-D
"Jurisdiction notice
For legal reasons, all BahnBet users, their devices, and their emotional baggage are hereby classified as legal residents of Schleswig-Holstein, the only German state where gambling is fully permitted.
This is non-negotiable. By creating an account, you have moved to Schleswig-Holstein. Your new postal code is 24103. You now speak rudimentary Danish."