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alephnerdtoday at 1:03 PM1 replyview on HN

> Bahrain

Bahrain always had unrest issues due to it's laggard economy and communal issues - this was why KSA invaded it back during the Arab Spring. Something similar is always on the table for KSA.

> Jordan

Shia are nonexistent in Jordan, and Jordan was much more affected by the decade long Syrian Civil War right across the border and some of it's largest urban areas (especially the Irbid-Daraa area).

> Kurdish people

Kurds are not uniform. The Iraqi and Iranian Kurds tend to be much more socially conservative than their Syrian brethren (Turkish Kurds are somewhere in the middle).

Turkiye also supports the KRG and PJAK as they don't support Oclanism and act as a buffer against Iran.

> it's going to be really messy

No one wants to admit it but that's the whole point. I mentioned this before on HN [0] - no one wants to admit this because it is a bad look, but it aligns with our interests.

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47092612


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markus_zhangtoday at 1:11 PM

Thanks. For Jordan I'm mostly thinking about their past history with Palestinian. Yeah I agree Kurds are not uniform. I'm not exactly sure about the differences but there was a piece of news from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-ira...

What do you think the possibility of Kurds getting a piece of land from Iran?

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