No, they are not that smart.

Even if the tariffs are not a lot, they are potent negotiating leverage.

They def knew they were lying about much they were collecting

They def knew they were lying about who is paying

They lied to the public about that and got a bit of extra creme in the bag but the effect was mostly leverage, which 'kind of worked'.

They could have very effectively used illegal tariffs to actually do 90-deals-in-90 days, knowing the case would take time to draw out.

But - they have no plan.

Trump does not think 9 months ahead - he has grudges, grievances, and he pursues whatever grievance he wants to that day.

He doesn't forget and will push his staff to go against old enemies

The point is not to improve the economy, bring back jobs - the point is to 'Look Tough' and 'Stick it to the Libs and Foreigners' and to get elected again, failing that, rig the elections (note, his secret signed Executive order with all sorts of things regarding elections)

The 'high visibility' of ICE is not a bad thing for him - it very much in purpose to show MAGA base that he's cracking liberal, immigrant and brown people heads.

Jamming those Somalis on the concrete is exactly the optics he wants for his base.

It was only until people started dying when newsmax/fox started questioning the legitimacy and some support is lost - and not even that much among the base.

Same thing with tariffs: he will play grievance, the 'Liberal Courts' are against, him blah blah and MAGA will be fine with it.

The problem is that Core MAGA is maybe really only 20% and Soft MAGA another 15% and that's not enough to win.

But it's almost.

Narrative, performance, grievance, populism, social media, information sphere - that's it.

It's Post-Truth.

People keep talking about these through the lens of the 'issues', it's completely wrong headed - policies don't matter, only perception etc.

Reality does have a way of sneaking through though, and 'hardball reality' can change minds. People do understand Epstein, tariffs when they pay attention, unemployment, prices, 'war mostly bad' etc. etc..

This is White House Reality TV, not really policy and that's the best way to understand it.

The entire Cabinet have completely been unable to explain the tariff policy - they keep changing their views there is no consistency - it's the same with the war in Iran - everyone's saying different things, objectives are unclear.

It's irrational too think that there is 'policy' here, this is whim, impulse, populism.