alt Hacker NewsLutnick deal: if we pay you $X now, and then Y happens, you will make us the whole refund, even though that windfall may very well exceed $X.
Insurance company deal: you pay us $X' now, and if Y' happens, we pay for everything which may substantively exceed $X'.
I have no idea what the point of this is, since it just restates what I wrote, and reinforces the point that the Lutnick deal is nothing like "insurance".