Apologies for going in the weeds on a general concept that is 100% valid, but it expends a couple of paragraphs on this so I must-

"Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user."

We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr. He was in his own home at the same time that the entire world could see the enormous buildup of resources the US was placing in the area. Trump did exactly the same tired "will he or won't he" that he has done for various other actions.

An attack was the most obvious event on the planet. This isn't some magical ret-conning, but anyone with a functioning brain could predicted the outcome.

I think the Polymarket angle to this is more that people were betting on whether he would choose existence over martyrdom. He could have hidden in countless places and sent various tirade videos for years, Osama-style, but this 86 year old man just decided to wait for the bombs.

And on Venezuela, anyone who thinks that was just a fantastically successful op is not rational. Clearly Trump had buy-in by either the Russians -- in return for some favours on Ukraine -- or various members in the Venezuela military (or most likely of all, both). Seeing several CH-47s flying over an entirely predictable target area utterly guarantees this.

Venezuela was a coup that levered the US military to fulfil it cleanly. With absolutely and complete certainty.