logoalt Hacker News

pinkmuffinereyesterday at 9:48 PM1 replyview on HN

I wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...


Replies

metalcrowyesterday at 10:22 PM

That's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.

show 1 reply