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wizzwizz4yesterday at 10:08 PM1 replyview on HN

We also care about the world outside the prediction markets. If decision-makers have an incentive to "throw the match" by making surprising decisions, that will impair the decision-making, which will affect the rest of us. Likewise, sufficiently-wealthy actors will be able to manipulate the behaviour of officials by betting against the behaviour they want to see, much like an assassination market.


Replies

Terr_yesterday at 11:48 PM

> manipulate the behaviour of officials by betting against

Right, it becomes regular bribery with middleman and a funny hat.

"I didn't pay the judge to dismiss the case against me, I just hedged by betting I'd be convicted and he just happened to be betting I'd go free, and now my money is coincidentally in his pocket.