If they are actually "exactly the same" and your criteria is a "random" developer then does it matter which you pick? Look for extracurriculars like active github, personal website/blog, open source contributions, vibe coding skills, etc. I bet 75% of the job market right now is being done on referrals anyway. Tap your network.

Keep raising the bar until all but 20 are excluded.

If you're truly looking this generic, then what is the problem exactly with taking the bottom 20% of the stack since that's what your pay is going to be anyway?