See this is a fun game because when you're fishing for a breakthrough you can predict tomorrow or 100 years. Nobody, even experts have any idea until it happens and they're holding it in their hands. To have any kind of accurate prediction you would have to have already observed other civilizations discover AGI to say how close the environment is to even be capable of making the leap. We could be missing something huge, we could need multiple seemingly unrelated breakthroughs to get there. We're for sure closer, but we could still be miles away, GPTs might even barking up the wrong tree.

Why this discussion is already annoying and poised to get so much worse is because now hundred billion dollar companies have a direct financial incentive to say they did it so I expect the definition will get softened to near meaninglessness so some marketing department can slap AGI on their thing.